• keepennitreal

This PA Republican is probably going down in November. Sorry.

If House Republicans are headed into an electoral slaughterhouse this fall - and there are lots of indications that they are - it looks like Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) could be headed for the chop.

In Roll Call's "six months until the election list of top ten most vulnerable incumbents," Perry comes in among just three Republicans, and the ninth-most imperiled House member overall.

(Photo By Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

The good news? He could be in the worse situation of Virginia Rep. Denver Riggleman or Illinois Rep. Rodney Davis.

The bad news? Roll Call thinks he's more vulnerable than the Democrat who beat Rep. Mia Love in Utah in 2018.

Here's why.

1. He has a well-funded Democratic opponent, and not much of a cash advantage. As Roll Call notes, "Perry had $815,000 at the end of the first quarter; DePasquale had $657,000."

2. As that Democratic fundraising number suggests, Democrats feel they have a VERY strong recruit for the race, and not some fair-to-middling candidate who could get lucky on the day... or not. As Roll Call puts it, "state Auditor Eugene DePasquale one of their top recruits. He narrowly carried the district in his 2016 auditor race."

3. Perry looks a little out of step with the district. His district is more moderate, but he's a member of the House Freedom Caucus. To this point, in 2018, Perry underperformed the more moderate President Trump's margin on the ballot in 2016. Trump won Perry's district by 9 points in 2016. In 2018, Perry won it by a mere 3 points.

We also think Trump voter attrition and fatigue is a factor here.

Fact is, the President just doesn't look as strong in Pennsylvania right now as he did in late October 2016, and if the economy doesn't improve, he'll probably be blamed for it.

That will have a down ballot effect, just like Trump's unfavorables did in 2018.

Perry barely eked it out in 2018. In 2020, if Trump's numbers are worse and Perry is ill-matched to the district, he's probably toast.

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